Erick hugs close to the coast of central Mainland Mexico and should become a hurricane very soon
What’s up with Tropical Storm Erick? Will SoCal see any surf from it?
Update: Friday afternoon, 7/05/2013 at 6PM PDT
CURRENT STATUS: (16.4N, 103.2W, as of 5PM PDT) Tropical Storm ERICK is roughly 230 miles West of Acapulco Mexico, holding max sustained wind speeds up to 60kts and tracking NW at 9kts. Central low pressure is at 993mb.
STORM FORECAST: Near-term strengthening is expected and should graduate to hurricane status very soon, if not already. This storm is currently showing good organization, and microwave images suggest that an eye is trying to develop. Furthermore, the environment is favorable for development, with little shear and currently over very warm water. However, after the next 24hrs, Erick is forecast to pass near cooler waters that were upwelled previously by Dalila, and then eventually much cooler waters that extend down the coast of Baja. Therefore, long-term potential for further strengthening is not looking so great at this point.
Some good things about Erick:
1) Sitting over very warm water with little wind shear, which is vital for further development.
2) Currently strengthening and showing good signs of organization.
3) Fairly good size system.
4) Mainland Mexico is getting surf from Erick, but most of it is short period windswell/chop due to the storm being so close to the coast. Baja Sur is next to get waves from Erick.
A couple bad things about Erick:
1) Still many days from even possibly nearing the SoCal swell window.
2) Cooler water temps lay ahead in the storm’s forecast track.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL
Still many days out from showing potential of sending SoCal any swell, and the long range outlook is not looking too promising. However, Mainland Mexico is getting waves now, and then likely Baja Sur soon after (check each region’s forecast for more details).
NEXT UPDATE: Saturday morning.
-Jonathan Warren
Image 1: NOAA’s satellite image of Erick spinning just offshore from Mainland Mexico just west of Acapulco, along with the track forecast to the NW.
Image 2: The track and intensity of Erick, along with the LOLA wave heights kicked up for Mexico. Taken from Surfline’s HurricaneTrak.
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Update: Friday morning, 7/05/2013 at 11:45AM PDT
CURRENT STATUS: (16.0N, 102.5W, as of 11AM PDT) Tropical Storm ERICK is roughly 190 miles WSW of Acapulco Mexico, holding max sustained wind speeds up to 55kts and tracking NW at 10kts. Central low pressure is at 997mb.
STORM FORECAST: Near-term strengthening expected. This storm is currently showing good organization, and microwave images suggest that an eyewall may be starting to develop. Furthermore, the environment is favorable for further development, with little shear and currently over very warm water. However, after the next 24hrs, Erick is forecast to pass near cooler waters that were upwelled previously by Dalila, and then eventually much cooler waters that extend down the coast of Baja. Therefore, long-term potential for further strengthening is not looking so great at this point.
Some good things about Erick:
1) Sitting over very warm water with little wind shear, which is vital for further development.
2) Currently strengthening and showing good signs of organization.
3) Fairly good size system.
4) Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur will see surf from this storm.
A couple bad things about Erick:
1) Still many days from even possibly nearing the SoCal swell window.
2) Cooler water temps lay ahead in the storm’s forecast track.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL
Still many days out from showing potential of sending SoCal any swell, and the long range outlook is not looking too promising. However, Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur soon after will get waves (check each region’s forecast for more details).
NEXT UPDATE: Friday afternoon by 3pm.
-Jonathan Warren
Image 1: NOAA’s satellite image of Erick spinning just offshore from Mainland Mexico near Acapulco, along with the track forecast to the NW.
Image 2: The track and intensity of Erick over the current warm SST’s, but notice the cooler water that lay ahead in the forecast period. Taken from Surfline’s HurricaneTrak.
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Update: Thursday afternoon, 7/04/2013 at 6PM PDT
CURRENT STATUS: (14.6N, 99.6W, as of 5PM PDT) Tropical Depression FIVE is roughly 145 miles south of Acapulco Mexico, holding max sustained wind speeds up to 30kts and tracking NW at 9kts. Central low pressure is at 1006mb.
STORM FORECAST: Soon to be a tropical storm, as this storm gradually becomes better organized while fueled by very warm water just offshore from Mexico. Although moderate easterly wind shear will continue to hinder potential for rapid intensification, it will still allow for slow development, as long as the center of the storm remains offshore. The system is forecast to remain on a NW’erly track just offshore from Mainland Mexico for the next few days or so, thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure over Mexico.
A few good things about TD 5:
1) Sitting over very warm water, which is vital for further development.
2) Showing good signs of organization.
3) Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur will see surf from this storm.
A couple bad things about TD 5:
1) Still many days from even possibly nearing the SoCal swell window.
2) Easterly shear is hindering any sort of rapid intensification.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL
Still many days out from showing potential of sending SoCal any swell. However, Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur soon after will get waves (check each region’s forecast for more details).
NEXT UPDATE: Friday morning.
-Jonathan Warren
Image 1: NOAA’s satellite image of TD 5 spinning just offshore from Mainland Mexico near Puerto Escondido, along with the track forecast to the NW.
Image 2: The track and intensity of TD 5 over the current warm SST’s, taken from Surfline’s HurricaneTrak.
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Update: Thursday morning, 7/04/2013 at 11:30AM PDT
CURRENT STATUS: (13.4N, 98.4W, as of 8AM PDT) Tropical Depression FIVE is roughly 190 miles SW of Puerto Escondido Mexico, holding max sustained wind speeds up to 30kts and tracking NW at 9kts. Central low pressure is at 1006mb.
STORM FORECAST: Soon to be a tropical storm, if not already. It has a well defined center and organized deep convection, while fueled by the very warm waters that sit just offshore from Mexico. However, moderate to strong easterly wind shear will likely prohibit much intensification over the next day or so, but the shear may relax a little after that. The storm is forecast to remain on a NW’erly track just offshore from Mainland Mexico for the next few days or so.
A few good things about TD 5:
1) Sitting over very warm water, which is vital for further development.
2) Showing good signs of organization.
3) Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur will see surf from this storm.
A couple bad things about TD 5:
1) Still many days from even possibly nearing the SoCal swell window.
2) Easterly shear is hindering the intensification process.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL
Still many days out from showing potential of sending SoCal any swell. However, Mainland Mexico and then likely Baja Sur soon after will get waves (check each region’s forecast for more details).
NEXT UPDATE: Thursday evening.
-Jonathan Warren
Image 1: NOAA’s satellite image of TD 5 spinning just offshore from Mainland Mexico near Puerto Escondido, along with the track forecast to the NW.
Image 2: The track and intensity of TD 5 over the current warm SST’s, taken from Surfline’s HurricaneTrak.
